Howdy friends and family,
After yesterday’s M 7.0 Earthquake North of Anchorage, Alaska I found myself wanting to learn a little more about this ground quaking thing. When trading Facebook messages with my aunt who lived through the 1960 Chile earthquake, she warned me about the aftershocks. As I laid awake last night, I realized how right she was. Now when the ground starts rumbling, I can’t help but wander if it is going to ramp back up or just taper off like usual. Judging by the fact that Maximus never made it to his own bed last, I am assuming I am not the only one a little anxious about all these free roller coaster rides of recent. Should I even be sweeping up the glass that broke, or just wait. So… here are some of the random things I found out:
- Was it really that bad? In addition to the magnitude, which there are apparently multiple types of, there is also the Modified Mercalli Intensity. In a single word, yesterday’s earthquake was ‘Severe’.
- Will it happen again? Nobody knows. Even the USGS cannot predict earthquakes.
- However! The USGS WILL forecast aftershocks. The short answer is lots of little ones coming up but a very low probability of another ‘big one’.
Well what do all these aftershocks look like? (Probability is one of those big words associated with numbers.) I am so glad you asked. Here is a plot of the magnitude verses time for all the aftershocks within 100 miles of Anchorage.
With a picture, you can make your own conclusion. Be sure to come back later, the image will update every 5 minutes. My conclusion: So far so good… Might as well enjoy the ride. After all, if your frame of reference is a bouncer like our baby girl’s, free bounces! (She is squealing and happy as can be this morning oblivious to yesterday’s event.) Now we just need work on the dog.
For my nerd friends: the plot is generated from a USGS GeoJSON object. A python script is running ‘IN THE CLOUD’, in case we loose power again. Source code.
Definitely more aware of what is hanging on the wall or sitting on the shelf above me this morning; but keep sweeping Anchorage. Today I am very thankful for limited damage and our amazing public servants.
Life is fragile, God is good. Be well.
William
Eagle River, Alaska